Scimex: Mathematical models predicting and preventing disease spread will
only be effective if scientists around the world collaborate closely, an
international group of disease specialists has warned.
The group
of 22 scientists and mathematicians were co-authors of a paper published
today in the prestigious journal Science, demonstrating how
mathematical modelling is a valuable toolkit that can account for
factors such as emergence of new pathogens, genetic evolution of
diseases and international travel.
One of them, Professor Mick
Roberts from Massey University's Institute of Natural and Mathematical
Sciences says the threat from infectious diseases is ongoing. "Memorable
successes like the eradication of smallpox are isolated events. New
emerging diseases still present a challenge – a challenge that we can
face with mathematical modelling if we do it right."
The paper
uses the example of the recent outbreak of Ebola in West Africa and how
scientists were able to predict the short-term growth of the epidemic to
plan for bed capacity. When initial attempts to contain the epidemic
were unsuccessful, modelling was used to determine the most effective
interventions – such as setting up novel types of treatment centres.
It
also highlights influenza and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as
examples of the success of mathematical modelling for planning
responses.
One of the barriers scientists face is under-reporting
of cases or transmission. This is in part being solved by mathematical
software becoming more accessible and often free online. Professor
Roberts says the key is to continue to share more information as widely
as possible.
"There is a mismatch between where scientists are and
where diseases are emerging. We need to empower local scientists to
collaborate with governments and other scientists around the world.
"Mathematical models will help us shape successful local and global public health policies."